The most intriguing match up of the night (Edson Barbosa vs. Ross Pearson) had its moments, but ultimately led to dissatisfaction as we watched Barbosa not show up for the third round, only to received an ill-deserved decision victory courtesy of hometown favoritism. Pearson was robbed of his decision, we were robbed of closure to what should have been a satiating striking battle.

So, like the proverbial thong-donning phoenix rising from the ashes of the MMA loving beach paradise, let us return to a positive note and look at a few of the potential match ups that we have to look forward to in the coming year:

1) Ben Henderson vs. Melvin Guillard:
I have been extolling the virtues of the newly Greg Jackson-ized Guillard for awhile now. Always having possessed the tools to be a champion, the thunder-fisted Louisiana native has found the guidance and focus necessary to put it all together and seal up the holes in his game. The result is a more patient, disciplined Guillard who is faster and more explosive than anyone else in the division and on any given night is capable of rendering unconscious just about any 155 pounder on the planet.    Henderson is coming off of the most impressive victory of his career (his decision win over gritty Jim Miller) and since entering the octagon less than 6 months ago has looked like one of the hottest fighters in the division. If this fight panned out to be even half as entertaining as it ought to be it would be a shoe-in for fight of the year. Henderson cannot and should not stand with Guillard. Melvin’s boxing and hand speed is on another level. Henderson would be wise to work his excellent wrestling and strength to tie his opponent up against the cage, work the dirty boxing and, when possible, take the fight to the mat in search of a submission.

The real question and determining factor in this fight would be Guillard’s wrestling and submission defense. Melvin has always had very good and highly underrated wrestling, but his submission defense game is another story, one that tends to end with The Young Assassin using his opponents body to tap out morse code for “I like being conscious”. Guillard’s evolution will be on display as he works to avoid Henderson’s dangerous submissions, keep the fight standing and wait for the opportunity to land a big combination.

Either way, this would be a war.

2) Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen II:
Closure. I need it. I need it bad. I need it like a redhead needs a hat. I, like any other self-respecting Anderson Silva fan, need to see The Spider have one more crack at the man who beat the hell out of him for four rounds before making the mistake of sleeping on Anderson’s web-like guard.  Sure, Chael Sonnen had the testosterone levels of Mickey Rourke during the pre-production of “The Wrestler”, but it still doesn’t sit right with me. Frankly, if I don’t see Anderson Silva beat Sonnen before stepping into retirement I will forever consider his legacy tarnished. I don’t want that. I want to remember Anderson Silva as quite possibly the greatest MMA fighter who ever lived, but  without retribution, that footage of Silva-Sonnen 1 might make that an impossibility for me. The good news is, now that Sonnen’s various legal escapades are behind him, the UFC seems open to making this happen.

I know, I know. Sonnen must get through a very tough welcome back bout with the rapidly improving Brian Stann. I have Sonnen winning this, but, given the layoff and Stann’s exponential learning curve, not by much. But lets assume he does. Further, lets assume that Silva does not lose to George St. Pierre (unlikely), Dan Henderson (more likely) or whoever else the UFC may throw at him in the interim. How does part 2 play out? It goes without saying that Anderson could catch anyone with a strike or a submission and end any fight in the blink of an eye. With him that is always a possibility, more often than not a probability. But I think the more pertinent question is- how does Silva deal with Sonnen’s wrestling?

I personally feel like the tone for the first fight was set when Silva, having underestimated Sonnen’s ability to throw a dangerous punch, got caught square on the jaw by a right cross. This punch, miraculously, hurt him and he spent the next couple of rounds trying to recover by which time Sonnen had depleted his gas tank with methodical ground and pound.  Sonnen is not likely to catch Anderson with strikes again. Like, EVER again. But he is still going to be able to get takedowns and control Silva for a fair portion of the fight. The Spider needs to realize that he can’t afford to get too flashy on the feet here. He needs to be efficient and effective for the portion of the fight that will remain standing, hurting Sonnen when and where he gets the opportunity before they head to the mat. An injured, dazed Sonnen is much less likely to be as effective at controlling his opponent and from there Silva can use submissions to end the fight or get things upright again.

I see Silva winning with another late fight sub, but I expect to see a much more even give and take until that point. I also expect to be able to sleep again.

3) Edson Barbosa vs. Ross Pearson II (in England):
It seems only fair, right? The truth is, even though this bout didn’t quite live up the hype there were some very interesting moments and I have reason to believe that the second time might be a charm. Pearson has never been short on tenacity and drive, in this fight it was Barbosa who appeared to fade late in the fight, seeming to have been convinced that he had the first two rounds in the bag and simply needed to coast in round 3 (turns out he was right). I think the hometown advantage clearly played a role here and I would love to see Barbosa step into a third round with Pearson convinced that he was losing. These fighter’s styles match in a very entertaining way, the only missing ingredient was Barbosa’s sense of urgency.

Well, thats it for now. Feel free to lend your thoughts on these bouts or to shower me with praise, ridicule, clarifications, questions or any other kind of response. As Chael Sonnen will tell you: any attention is good attention.

I must admit to being saddened by the sudden and possibly permanent interruption of what I had come think of as the “Machida Era” of 205 lbs. Gone are the hopes of the light heavyweight division being ruled by a stoic and downright mysterious individual who single-handedly reintroduced Karate to the combat sport world, bewildering every previous opponent with moves so flashy, yet effective they seemed straight out of a well choreographed fight scene from “Walker Texas Ranger”. Now equally invalid are my fantasies that, after cleaning out 205, Lyoto might leap up to Heavyweight and perform his magic on a bevy of Karate-ignorant behemoths. Instead I’m afraid we’re looking at some rebuilding fights, which may give Jon Jones all the time he needs to enter his prime and cause some serious trouble for Lyoto, Rua and everyone else at light heavyweight. Machida may indeed make his way back to the top, and his first loss could end up being the best thing that ever happened to him, but an Era all his own now seems far less likely.

One can’t be too sad though, seeing as how this is great news for one of the more classy, likable and talented fighters out there, newly minted champ Mauricio Shogun Rua. Due to the fact that Shogun’s early career took place in Japan, his current success in the US is not being given credit for what it is: one of the greatest comeback stories in Mixed Martial Arts history. At the time of the dissolution of Pride a few years ago Shogun was widely considered the greatest 205 lb. fighter on the planet. The pulling of the Pride plug (and therefore the evaporation of the very context of his success) coincided with a couple very serious knee injuries for the young Brazilian, sidelining him for the better part of a couple years. far too soon after the first knee injury an understandably hobbled, bloated and relatively unknown (outside of die-hard fans like myself) Shogun was dealt a submission loss to a motivated Forrest Griffin in his UFC/American debut. This affront to his reputation was worsened after a second knee injury and an unimpressive win over Father Time himself, Mark Coleman. However, he has appeared back to form since his KO victory over Chuck Liddell and is now officially, once again, atop the light heavyweight heap. Bem-vindo de volta! (Portuguese for “welcome back”)

though a title changed hands and the event’s Canadian fighters failed to produce a single home-town win, no one lost more on Saturday night than Paul Daley. “The sucker punch heard ‘round British Columbia” earned the Brit immediate and “permanent” expulsion from the premier MMA organization in the world. In the seconds following his fight with Koscheck, Daley’s relatively high stock plummeted like pork futures in some sort of fascist-vegetarian regime. The worst part is that his performance, though a clean cut loss, was not even that bad. He got outwrestled by one of the best wrestlers in MMA, okay, could happen to almost anyone, and he even managed some impressive take down defense early in the fight. Minus the post-bell blind-siding and plus another year or so of work on his wrestling and ground game and we might have been looking at the division’s next Thiago Alves. As it stands, Daley will be lucky if he can get a gig as a sparring partner for the cast of the next Guy Richie movie.

Kimbo Slice, we hardly knew ye. My heart had actually warmed quite a bit to Mr. Slice over the past couple of years. Inexperienced and insanely over-hyped (through no fault of his own), Kimbo none the less managed to maintain his grip on the limelight for longer than many would have been able to and in the meantime made some respectable improvement in his game. These improvements, however, do not appear to include enhanced cardiovascular fitness. Read more about this in my next article: “does Kimbo Slice has asthma?” I’ve heard rumblings about Kimbo Slice vs. Hershel Walker over in Strikeforce, and though the MMA fan in me would rather watch Bruce Buffer fight the Sham-wow guy I’m all for whatever helps to grow the formerly homeless fighter’s pocketbook while the growing is still good.

That’s it for now, next up- Rashad Evans versus The Actor Formerly Known as Rampage Jackson. Until then…

For the purposes of balance, lets begin with a positive. I am actually looking forward to Evans-Ortiz 2. Was there anyone, even amongst the most anti-Tito fans, who was not at least somewhat pleasantly surprised to see the aging legend and heavy underdog pull out a first round submission victory over a dangerous young contender? And then, only weeks later, to fall ass-backwards into an upcoming bout with the divisions number one contender? Its storybook. And thats kinda’ the problem. I was looking forward to watching Johnny “Bones” Jones assert division dominance and cement his place as perhaps the pound for pound greatest fighter alive today and instead I feel like I just bought a ticket for the premier of Rocky 7. Not to mention the fact that the last time Rashad Evans set foot in an octagon I had an active Myspace account. An interesting and unexpected match up? Yes. A PPV headliner? No.

Making our way down the card, your co-main event is probably the most significant fight, with Vitor Belfort facing off against “Sexiyama”. Belfort was experiencing quite the career renaissance before running face first into Anderson Silva’s foot a few months back, but is still a very relevant and dangerous middleweight contender. Akiyama is as game as they come and always puts on an exciting show, so no complaints with this fight. The rest of the card is a bit depressing. Hallman-Ebersole, Jorge Rivera-Allesio Sakara and McDonald-Pile. Don’t get me wrong, all due respect to these fighters, I would be more than pleased to sit down on my couch and watch these bouts unfold on basic cable. But this is far from what I would consider to be a fully formed UFC PPV card. It is the final hurdle in this proverbial winter of MMA excitement.

On the bright side, it looks like the UFC will be making it up to us on August 14 with one of the best free events they have ever put together. Hardy-Lytle (the headlining event) has the makings of a rather entertaining fireworks show and the supporting cast includes two of the best lightweight match-ups in recent memory- Jim Miller-Ben Henderson and Donald Cerrone-Charles Oliveira. Shortly thereafter we have the UFC’s return to Rio, a card stacked with superstars and solid match ups.
So please join me in holding our collective breath a few weeks longer, big things in store for late-summer fall.

Let us begin with what is by far the saddest tale from this treasure trove of misery, the bewildering and anti-climactic end of BJ Penn’s career. A year ago BJ seemed resurrected. Finally having conquered his cardio and conditioning demons he was dishing out solid beatings to the likes of top contenders like Kenny Florian and it seemed as though the complete BJ Penn that we had always hoped for had arrived to lay claim to a properly prolonged reign atop the Lightweight division. The first loss to Frankie Edgar, though disappointing, was less than shocking. Edgar, one of the very best lightweights in the world (though in my opinion being a more natural Featherweight), posed a tough stylistic match-up for BJ due to his boxing skill. BJ’s take down defense has allowed him to turn his fights, essentially, into boxing matches- a game plan that he has nary veered from for years. And with his high-level boxing this plan had worked just fine until meeting Edgar. Edgar’s equally technical stand up plus a willingness to mix up strikes and actually execute a specific game plan seems to have solved the BJ Penn riddle at 155. What was most disappointing (though not surprising) was BJ’s inability to adapt in the second fight, to either utilize other aspects of his mma repertoire (remember Jiu-Jitsu BJ?) or pressure Edgar into a more confrontational stand-up war in which his superior power could take precedent. Now we have been “treated” to BJ Penn-Matt Hughes 3, though not an entirely unexciting spectacle, a clear step in the wrong direction for a man who was supposed to be busy cementing his lightweight legacy. This fight wreaks of the UFC attempting to get a marketable match or 2 out of BJ before calling it quits on the prodigy. After his destruction of Hughes and a now looming bout with Fitch, it appears the prodigy may indeed have some fine fights left in him, but can these potential match-ups ever emerge from the shadow cast by Penn’s anti-climactic exodus from 155? BJ Penn is possibly the most talented fighter in the history of the sport, but unfortunately will be equally memorable for his inability or unwillingness to make the most of these gifts.

Jumping up to Middleweight we have the bizarre spectacle that was Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen. Silva may have walked away with a victory and displayed his perseverance in securing the late fight, come-from-behind submission, but he lost the rest of the fight so thoroughly that it is difficult to consider the bout a win. Not only did Silva get completely overwhelmed by Sonnen’s wrestling- he got rocked by Sonnen’s punches! Sonnen, though a capable wrestler, has never been considered to have dangerous stand-up and he becomes the first fighter to ever hurt Silva with strikes? This is just not right. What’s next? Is Pat Buchannan going to beat Michael Jordan in a game of one on one? As an Anderson Silva fan I found this entire fight to be disappointing on every level. By the time Silva secured the armbar that saved him from his first UFC defeat I was so nauseous that I barely noticed. Sonnen’s subsequent positive piss test has done little to reassure me, and I’m afraid I just won’t be able to look at the long-time Middleweight champ the same way again.

As if all this was not enough, Fedor Emelianenko suffered his first legitimate MMA loss, getting subbed by Fabricio Werdum in the early stages of the first round. Of the three, this loss was the least distressing to me. Fedor has always employed an explosive and effective, yet risky style. He bobs and weaves instead of keeping is hands posted near his chin and he dives into the guards of talented submission artists. This entertaining concoction of steely psychological control and unpredictable explosiveness is part of what has made the Russian so dangerous, but it  does create opportunities for opponents and this was bound to happen eventually. I have long considered Werdum the most underrated Heavyweight in the world and he may have been just the guy to catch Fedor in this type of situation. In a rematch I see Emelianenko employing more caution, maintaining the stand-up and KO’ing the Brazilian. Part 2 appears to be a very real possibility, so the long-reigning number one heavyweight will probably get his chance to redeem himself.

Brock Lesnar is human…all too human. After narrowly escaping a stoppage at the freakishly oversized hands of Shane Carwin, Brock succumbed early to a mostly one-sided destruction courtesy of long-touted Heavyweight contender, and now champ, Cain Velasquez.

Though Brock’s equally oversized personality has begun to grow on me (and even more so given his gracious post-fight humility), my heart can’t help but be warmed by the perseverance of technical skill over size and brute strength. This fight was a victory for the integrity of the sport, but perhaps a loss for the UFC’s marketing machine. Either way its another big shift at the top of a weight class.

Is there a light at the end of the tunnel of skepticism that is this article? Yes. And his name is Jose Aldo. 2010, along with the aforementioned agony, gave us something amazing-the full arrival of Jose Aldo as a bonafide pound for pound superstar. It had been a long time since anyone has thought of Aldo as anything but full of potential, but 2010 became the year that Aldo went from one of the hottest prospects on the planet to possibly the best pound for pound fighter alive. He appears simply unstoppable. Speed, power, precision technique, a complete and well-rounded skill set, patience, discipline and the ability and willingness to execute a game plan…and all of 24 years old. Aldo’s career is going to be one for the books and it all started roughly in the past 12 months…so thanks 2010…you bastard.

After collecting myself and changing my pants I realized that Daley was not the first British martial artist to crack me up. GSP’s most recent victim, Dan Hardy, also possesses the gift of gab, a talent that (along with wins over respectable welterweights) gained him notoriety enough to garner a title shot. If you don’t believe me, swing on over to youtube, watch any entry of Dan Hardy’s Video Blog and prepare to bust thy gut.

Before Hardy, the funniest guy in the UFC was none other than British kickboxing sensation Michael Bisping, who is personally responsible for the most watchable moments in the history of the UFC’s reality show (excluding fights). In fact, the only American fighter who can be compared with this stable of Cockney comedians is Quentin Jackson…and where does he train? At the Wolf’s Lair Gym- In England! Its as though he had an epiphany in the middle of one of his post fight laugh-ins, surveyed his relatively un-funny “New World” surroundings and decided to head for more clever pastures in the land of right-side steering wheels and perfunctory royalty.

Now you may have noticed that of all of the jokesters mentioned, the American is by far the best FIGHTER of the bunch. British MMA is still developing (as is MMA all over the world for that matter) and has yet to reach the level of quality of MMA in the U.S. or, say, British boxing. However, there is no doubting that the former colonial power is a hot bed of hilariousness and that British fighters have and continue to make an important contribution to the culture of MMA by infusing it with a much needed comedic presence. I don’t know what they’re putting in the Gatorade over there, but drink up British MMA and keep the clever comments comin’.

1) Paul Buentello (+375) vs. Cheick Congo (-550):

While these odds present a great opportunity in my opinion they don’t necessarily surprise me. Paul Buentello has always been underrated in my opinion; his boxing, elusive head movement and surprising agility never quite getting the respect they deserve. Kongo has long been considered the best pure striker in the UFC’s heavyweight roster (unfortunately his ground skills are reminiscent of a plane crash). So, in a battle of strikers the majority of opinion is going to side heavily with Kongo, as seems to be the case at the sportsbook. But let’s take a closer look.

Kongo began began his ascent in the UFC in the post-Tim Silvia/Andrei Arlovski era, a time that saw the heavyweight division without a strong stable of striking talent. So, by comparison, his strikes seemed especially fearsome. In fact, the only notable MMA striker that Kongo has faced in his UFC career is Mirko Crocop and this battle came well past the prime of Crocop’s career. It should also be noted that Kongo suffered a KO defeat to Gilbert Yvel (before coming to the UFC) and was most recently decked and dropped to the canvas by submission specialist Frank Mir. I know what you are going to say, Frank Mir’s boxing has looked excellent lately, however, that opinion is probably based primarily on his dazzling KO of Nogueria- a performance I was less impressed by after, in the following weeks and months, it became clear that Big Nog had entered that fight with a serious leg injury, hampering his mobility.

I am not saying Kongo’s striking is overrated…but I do think that it’s rusty. Since fighting in the UFC Kongo has gotten used to having a significant advantage in the striking department and as a result I believe that part of his game has stagnated. This will also be the first time he has faced a striker like Buentello, who has a more traditional boxing style, big power in his hands, the ability to move in and out of range and the size to bully Kongo in the clinch or on the ground. Buentello is coming off a decision loss to Stephan Struve, an extremely close fight that could have gone either way, during which Buentello did a good job of closing the distance against a man far taller and lankier than Kongo. “The Headhunter” has a real shot here, definitely better than 3.75 to 1.

THE BET: PAUL BUENTELLO (+375), VIA 2ND ROUND TKO

2) Jon Jones (-285) vs. Brandon Vera (+225):

Allow me to cut through my normally long-winded ruminations and simply make this statement: Jon Jones is the future of the Light-heavyweight division. Jones, barely having emerging from puberty, is already one of the most complete fighters in the division. His striking, though a craft he is still relatively new to, is dangerous and versatile, his Greco-Roman wrestling is OFF THE CHARTS (see his complete manhandling of wrestling juggernaut Matt Hamill) and he appears to have maturity beyond his years- a trait he displayed in his graceful and humble acceptance of his DQ loss to Hamill. All this and he appears to be learning fast, a fact no doubt aided by his collaboration with Greg Jackson.

Ironically, many of the things I just said about Jones could be said of Vera, who is also a dangerous, lanky, versatile striker with very solid wrestling skills. However, I am convinced that there is nothing that the two do that Jones cannot do just a little bit better. I see Jones standing up with the more experienced striker (Vera) and fairing decently until deciding to seal the deal by taking the fight to the mat, via an expert Greco-Roman throw, and grounding and pounding Vera.

Despite his relative inexperience, Jones has the skill and the competitive focus to beat pretty much anyone at 205, except for the very cream of the crop (Machida, Rua and a few others). Even as a heavy favorite he is the smart bet here.

THE BET: JONES (-285), VIA TKO IN ROUND 2

3) Matt Brown (+105) vs. Ricardo Almeida (-135):

Moving on to the March 27th event, we have Matt Brown playing the role of Ricardo Almeida’s first opponent at 170 lbs. Brown has looked really solid since his stint on TUF, displaying his impressive toughness and a very well-rounded skill set. Almeida, while a dominating wrestling and jiu-jitsu force at 185 lbs., will be having his first fight in a new weight class after what will be a nearly 8 month layoff. Brown has demonstrated serious improvement in his tenure in the UFC, having taken a quantum leap since appearing on Spike’s attempt to create an even more violent version of VH1 programming. Come fight night we will be seeing the best Matt Brown ever. For Almeida, there are just too many question marks.

THE BET: MATT BROWN (+105), VIA UNANIMOUS DECISION

Even more impressive is that he is an equally accomplished grappler, holding first place wins in reputable grappling tournaments and earning two Judo state championships in high school (placing 3rd in the country). He is also a long time training partner of Karo Parisyan and Manny Gamburian, very solid company in which to hone one’s skills.

I see Darabedyan matching up well with all three of the WEC top lightweights (the aforementioned trio) and with a couple more impressive performances could be looking at a bout with any of the three and a title shot soon after. I see Karen using his Judo to keep the fight standing (hardly much of a task against Cerrone or Varner who seem to prefer to stand and trade anyway) and scoring points with superior boxing en route to decision victories and KO’s, a game plan that seems feasible against all three opponents.

Darabedyan’s next fight is against Bart Palaszewski and I am already salivating at the opportunity to bet on this fight. Bart is a well-rounded veteran with plenty of experience who has earned respect in the sport. But Karen is going to dismantle him with well timed, well placed punches. With my primary basis being their most recent performances I find Palaszewski to be greatly overmatched in every significant category. I see Darabedyan punishing and frustrating Bart with superior boxing early and then thwarting the takedown later on in order to dish out more of the same. The lines on this fight have not been released yet, but at pretty much any odds I am betting big on Karen. This win will serve as a wake-up call the rest of the division and shortly thereafter we will be hearing Darabedyan’s name in conjuction with one or all of the WEC’s Lightweight big three.

Hindsight being 20/20, I can now see the error of picking Reljic over Dolloway (as pointed out to me pre-fight by a wise “mmaniac”), if nothing else a clear violation of my own personal rule of NEVER betting on a fighter who has been out of competitive action for over a year. Reljic still has a bright future in my opinion, but 18 months is an eternity as far as layoffs go. My excitement about finally seeing the Croatian back in action overwhelmed my practicality-the cardinal sin of the astute gambler-a mistake that hopefully will lead to greater discipline in the future. The worst part is that Reljic was such a heavy favorite that if I had been even-minded enough to not overlook the layoff factor I would have had the opportunity to cash in on what was rightfully a great underdog pick in Dolloway.

Though unsuccessful, I stand by my Jardine and Nogueira picks. Jardine, though eventually succumbing to TKO late in the fight, put up a very competitive performance against Bader. He was not dominated by Bader’s superior wrestling and the fight was close right up until the stoppage. Nogueira did not fare nearly as well, getting caught by a huge right hand early in the first round. Cain did an excellent job of pouncing on the downed Nogueira and finishing him, demonstrating his ever improving striking and precision finishing skills. Cain’s performance has me thoroughly excited about a showdown between him and Lesnar, as soon as the big man is back in fighting shape.

Finally, Wandy came through for me in my pick of the night, and though he did not dominate in quite the fashion I had thought he might, he pulled out the win and spared me from an even greater dent in my gambling pocketbook.

Once again, all apologies to those who may have trusted my predictions. Remember, there is always next month.